Estimates by me may differ from official reports - Cyclone Tauktae was a deadly storm that occurred in mid-may 2021. The storm formed in the southeastern Arabian sea and began to intensify. The storm then rapidly intensified off the coast of India and became a category 4. The storm then underwent and eyewall replacement cycle and weakened as it made its closest pass to Mumbai. The city got major flooding from both storm surge and rainfall and also logged their highest recorded wind gust ever. After that, Tauktae finished its eyewall replacement cycle and reached its peak as a category 4 right as it made landfall in India. The storm then rapidly weakened and went post-tropical. Its remnants are still active right now. The storm killed at least 45 and a hundred people remain missing. The storm struck during a catastrophic Covid-19 wave in India, which made things even worse. The storm is the strongest storm to strike Gujrat in recorded history (My analysis) I made 5 updates and countless graphics on the storm. Code pink was briefly raised but was downgraded to code red after the EWRC - Forecast critique Genesis: Tauktae's Genesis was very well forecast. The potential system was first noted as an area to watch over a week prior to formation and introduced as an AOI about 6 days before. The storm was given a high chance of formation 3 days prior Track: Track errors were about average for the North Indian ocean. Notably, there was a considerable westward bias, with initial forecasts calling for a landfall in Pakistan, and forecasts consistently calling for a landfall on the India-Pakistan border. However, the landfall location became more accurate after the storm started to impact the west coast of India Intensity: Intensity forecasts were slightly less accurate the usual, but that can be expected in storms that rapidly intensify. Initial forecasts had a low-bias, and for a while only a category 3 landfall was anticipated. However, after the initial rapid intensification phase, a high bias came in and a peak of 155 mph was once forecast. However, this is fair as the EWRC was not anticipated. After the EWRC, the next RI phase was not anticipated, and a landfall of only 115 mph was forecast. Watches and warnings: Cyclone warnings were issued for the Lakshadweep islands. Although they did not verify, a slight southwest wobble would have caused cyclone-force winds on the islands, so they were fair. A tropical storm warning was issued for a large portion of the west Indian coast and they mostly verified. A cyclone warning was issued for most of the Gujrat coast and that also verified in many areas. An extreme wind warning was issued for the landfall area which did verify as well. Tropical storm warnings were issued for a small part of Pakistan, and that did not verify - Tags: #Scratchmaster295 #TropicalCyclone #Cyclone #Hurricane #Meteorology #CycloneTauktae #SuperCycloneTauktae #Tauktae #India #Gujrat #Mumbai #Weather #Animations #2021 #Recent
