CHECK OUT THE ACCOMPANYING BLOG POST AT http://pulljosh.postach.io/expected-value This is a little thing I made for fun. Here's what it means: Green circle = Made shot from that point Red circle = Missed shot from that point Variables: total 2s = How many two pointers are displayed on the screen made 2s = How many two pointers were made (of the shots on the screen) 2s % = % of 2 pointers that were made (based on previous two variables) expected points (2s) = The expected value of a 2-point shot (see more about expected value below) All the variables are the same for 3-point shots. Expected value is what you would get (in theory) as an average if you repeated the same thing over and over. In our case, that means that the variable "expected points (2s)" is equal to the amount of points you should expect to score when shooting a shot from within the 2-point range. Sort of. You obviously don't expect to make 0.92 points. It's impossible (based on the rules of the game). Rather, you expect that, after shooting a lot of 2-pointers, your average would be about 0.92. (The same goes for 3-pointers) CONCLUSION: In theory, it is better to take 3 pointers (an extra half point per shot!), but that may not be true for some players. There are also a lot of other factors (time left in game, etc.) that change what you should do. But, for the "average" college basketball player, in a completely average scenario, not considering the defence or anything else, 3-pointers are the way to go.
I got all the data from http://www.basketballgeek.com/data/. There's no way I could have done this without them! Final note: The data is different for every player. Some players are better shooters than others, but this is the average of a lot of players' shots. ;) Disclaimer: I don't know how accurate this data is. :P
