Apr 28, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight... Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX. The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake. There may be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over OK/MO. However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities. Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the ArkLaTex southward. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today from southeast OK/western AR northward. Thus, the main threat for any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow from the ArkLaTex southward. It appears possible that additional storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage and occasional large hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1506Z (11:06AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
